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October 18, 2024

The GOP’s shrinking electoral college edge

The US Electoral College system has historically given an advantage to the Republican Party. This advantage is because less populous rural states that frequently lean Republican have a proportionally larger influence in the Electoral College than they do in the popular vote. As per the U.S. constitution, each state gets a number of electors equal to its total number of Senators and Representatives, thus giving a slight edge to rural states. However, demographic shifts and changing political landscapes could be shrinking this GOP advantage. Many traditionally Republican states, such as Texas and Arizona, are seeing an influx of younger, more diverse populations that lean Democratic. Additionally, changing opinions in the suburbs and increased turnouts in urban areas in recent years have led to historic Democratic wins in traditionally Republican strongholds. However, it's important to note that electoral advantages can shift over time and can be influenced by the specific candidates, political climate, and the campaign strategies of the parties. It is also important to remember that the Electoral College system has resulted in multiple presidents who lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote, including Republican President Donald Trump in 2016.