Which election predictors deserve your trust — and which probably don’t

Trustworthy election predictors typically have a track record of accuracy, strong reputation for balance and non-partisanship, adhere to transparent methods of data collection and analysis, and regularly update their predictions. They also consider factors like demographic variables, historical voting patterns, polls, and political climate. 1. FiveThirtyEight: FiveThirtyEight’s predictive models rely on a combination of polls, demographics, and historical data. Led by statistician Nate Silver, they have a solid reputation for accurate predictions. 2. The Economist’s Election Forecast: Renowned for in-depth and insightful analysis, The Economist's model uses data on demographics and past voting patterns. 3. Princeton Election Consortium: Run by neuroscientist Sam Wang, it has had a good track record. 4. Decision Desk HQ: It offers fast, accurate election results and predictions, and it is an independent company not affiliated with any political party or group. 5. Politico: They provide comprehensive and up-to-the-minute election news, analysis, and results. On the other hand, election predictors that tend to be less trustworthy usually rely heavily on intuitive or subjective opinions, lack transparency, may not update their predictions regularly, and may show a clear partisan bias. It's crucial to remember that, no matter how reputable or accurate a predictor typically is, all election predictions carry some level of uncertainty. It's often best to look at multiple sources, including local polls and news reports, to get a comprehensive understanding.